By Doug Matthews -- Armed clashes in Northern waters are not far-fetched.

The North has been rediscovered, again. By the south, no less.

Once upon a time, way back in the days when sail was king, folks down south liked us because we offered the possibility of a shorter trip to move their stuff around the world. The fabled Northwest Passage was their goal and many of their best and, well, evidently not their brightest, tried to find a way through our frozen Northern waters, with predictable results.

Then, finally admitting defeat, they built the Panama and Suez Canals, the trip got shortened and we faded away, the dream of the Northern passage left to Mounties and missionaries.

But now, with climate change proceeding apace, with our ice-packed barriers losing more and more of their threat, those southern folks are back, this time not to simply pass through our Northern waters but to drill deeply into them, in pursuit of the newly available oil and gas resources that the U.S. Geological Survey says are there for the taking.
How this came to be is simplicity itself. First, burning fossil fuels creates greenhouse gases that are the main cause of the climate change we are seeing today. This climate change, in turn, causes the Arctic ice to melt, resulting in more open water, which provides greater access to the North, allowing for increased drilling for oil and gas, the burning of which will result in… well, you get the idea.

Now, any group of southerners who can follow that logical progression are capable of more than just drilling for oil; they are also capable of fighting over it and, sure
enough, that’s what we’re seeing today – fights over oil in the Arctic. Everyone is trying to draw lines in the water, making their mark and establishing their right to the resource riches below.

Canada and the United States are fighting over the border between Alaska and Yukon in the Beaufort Sea. Norway and Russia are fighting over the border in the Barents Sea. Russia planted a flag under the North Pole and told everybody else to stay away.

Fights over water abound and we Canadians must be ever vigilant in protecting our interests for, as our Prime Minister has repeatedly said about the North – in a phrase that while correct in its focus is sadly lacking in rhetorical flourish – we must “use it or lose it”.

All well and good, but while we must remain alert to the threats of the Americans and the Russians, there is one country that has already moved beyond simple disputes over water and has actually set foot on actual Northern land that we claim as our own.
The Danes, the people who gave us Tuborg beer, Lego and the indecisive Hamlet, have laid claim to Hans Island, a non-descript chunk of rock found in the Nares Strait between Nunavut’s Ellesmere Island and Greenland. They landed there and planted a flag, no less.

Denmark, a country of 5.5 million people, spread over a peninsula and a few islands north and west of Germany, a country so flat that its highest peak is called Sky Mountain, even though it reaches just 145 metres above sea level, is laying claim to our North. Denmark wants Canadian soil and it wants access to the petroleum riches of the newly opened water off Greenland.

But it gets worse. In support of its claims, the Danish government has recently announced that it will expand its permanent military capabilities in the Arctic. The plans involve an air force presence in the Faroe Islands and at a military base in Greenland, one that it will share with the Americans. Jets, helicopters, soldiers leaping out of the latter, all aimed at establishing a Danish claim in the Canadian Arctic.

While the idea of a Danish military threat to Canada is perhaps fanciful, the use of soldiers and sailors to establish claims in the North sets a dangerous precedent. If it’s allowed to go unchallenged, it can only lead to more of the same by other countries – ones that, unlike the Danes, may be more able to act on their interests.

Imagine we have a world with depleting oil reserves, where peak oil has come and gone, where fewer of the world’s resources are available to private oil companies because they’re locked up by national ones. Imagine a world where, as a result, the price of oil begins to rise to heights unimagined today. And then, imagine a world with an increasing need on the part of major countries like America and Russia for new energy supplies, either to fuel their economies or extend their geopolitical influence.

In such a world, in our Northern waters, can you also imagine a barrel of oil being claimed over the barrel of a gun?